An English version of the Book is in preparation
The book „Halbzeit der Energiewende?“ (Half-time of the energy transition?) deals with the energy transition initially from the perspective of the German energy system and German energy policy. Nevertheless, the German energy transition is seen as a pioneer and model in many parts of the world. Many findings can therefore also be transferred to other energy systems and other countries. An English-language version of the book is in preparation to give international interested parties access to these new findings. Specific scientific studies will also be published in relevant journals.
To give you a first insight into the book and the findings, the book description and the chapter abstracts have been translated in advance. The corresponding illustrations can be found on the German tabs.
Book description
Is the energy transition stuck, has it possibly failed? Have regulation and politics slowed down the change to sustainable energy use? Is the economy sleeping through the change? No, not at all. While for many people the energy transition is not moving fast enough, we are in the midst of changing our energy system, on the threshold of a new energy society. And we are already much further along than some people think.
This book shows that the energy transition is only part of a larger process of change. A change in the way we deal with energy, its production and its value. It is part of the ongoing fourth industrial revolution and much more than just the switch to renewable energies. This transformation is taking place across all sectors of the economy and society, transforming the energy industry, changing mobility and initiating decentralised solutions in businesses and in our cities and communities.
This change is analysed and evaluated scientifically, through research and discussions with experts from the most diverse perspectives. Part by part, a picture of the new energy world emerges. The path of fossil energies is coming to an end and a new, a different energy system is emerging.
The book describes what the levers of change are, what role hydrogen can play, what societal changes will come and how new international energy partnerships can emerge. It is aimed at all those who want to participate in the transformation of the energy system. It helps companies and organisations to understand the transformation and to develop their role in it, and can also provide policy-makers with pointers on how to implement the energy transition, pointers on how to shape the transformation into a new energy society.
The German-language book will be published in autumn and can be obtained from bookshops and the Springer publisher website. The English version is expected in the first quarter of 2021.
Chapter 1 – Energy transition 1.0
Has the energy transition stalled? Has it possibly failed? After more than 25 years, the expansion of renewables seemed to have slowed down, and many saw little progress in the energy transition in recent years. Reasons for the apparent standstill are a misunderstanding of the changes in the energy world, unclear goals of the energy transition, the neglect of decentralisation, a lack of sector coupling, stifling regulation and political blockades. However, a look back also shows that the use of renewable energies has been continuous and that more and more actors have accepted and continue to accept the energy transition. A high level of acceptance of the energy transition among the population, widespread commitment and a resurgence of climate discussions indicate that the energy transition will continue to move forward.
Chapter 2 – At the end of the first half
We are at the end of the first half, in the break, at the beginning of the second and decisive half. Who were the players in the first 25 years, what was their strategy, how did the game go? The beginning of the second half is also the beginning of a new seriousness. More and more players have understood that the path is irreversible, that the energy transition must be implemented for climate reasons alone. It is increasingly recognised that renewable energies and the restructuring of the energy system cannot be organised with the rules of the game of the first half, the old energy world. The resurgent climate debate is proving to be a driver. Politicians are making the first course corrections. The strategies and tactics for the second half are changing – it promises to be dynamic.
Chapter 3 – Energy economy and industry
The large energy companies RWE and E.ON, energy technology concerns such as SIEMENS, the steel industry and the chemical industry – for decades they were considered to be the preventers of an energy transition and were the number one bogeyman of many environmentalists. Something has changed. The big energy companies are completely rebuilding themselves, abandoning old structures and focusing on a new energy world. The steel industry is working intensively on CO2-neutral production, on replacing fossil fuels with green electricity and hydrogen. Large industrial groups seem to be becoming the drivers of the energy transition, the transformation into a new energy world. They have understood that sticking to the old structures will be more expensive than quick and massive investments in the new technologies.
Chapter 4 – Industrial revolutions and the new energy world
According to economist Rifkin, industrial revolutions take place in three basic elements: communication, energy and logistics. The second and third industrial revolutions rely on steam power, electricity and oil for energy. Revolutions are always characterised by disruptive elements. The analysis shows that we are already in the 4th industrial revolution. The elements of communication and logistics are already showing disruptive changes, the change in energy is still lagging behind. Decentralised communication technologies now meet decentralised energy components and form a new communication-energy matrix. The energy world will also undergo disruptive changes in parts. The new energy world will be essentially characterised by decentralised structures, regenerative energies and intelligent systems. The energy transition describes the change towards this new state.
Chapter 5 – Digitalisation and social changes
The transformation of the energy world is taking place in a changing environment. Demographic change, the strengthening of nation states and the conditions of globalisation are changing the framework conditions in which the energy world presents itself. Digitalisation creates new, decentralised structures, distributed intelligent systems and enables new processes. But it is also changing our working world and processes. Cyber-physical systems are taking over tasks that were otherwise the responsibility of humans. Value creation in a digital world is taking place in ever shorter chains; value can no longer be defined by work alone. And where are our markets heading? Strong state or more market economy? The framework conditions for the 4th industrial revolution are becoming discernible and with them the space for the new energy world.
Chapter 6 – The Value of Energy
Digitalisation and social change are transforming our sphere of action. Value chains are changing, the value of energy must be redefined. It is no longer determined by the number of electrons delivered or the amount of oil. In the new energy world, the value of energy will largely depend on availability, energy supply and flexibility. The marginal costs of electricity generation from renewable energy are approaching zero, electricity alone has no value, but availability in line with demand does. The relationship to energy will have to be reclassified. Who owns energy, especially energy from renewable sources? Is energy a common good, is it free of charge and only its processing, transport and provision assigned a value? The new energy world raises far more than just technical questions.
Chapter 7 – The benefits perspective of the energy transition
There is a causal negative relationship between climate change and energy use. Cause and negative effect occur strongly separated in time and space. The argumentation for changing the way we use energy has so far always been negative: If you don’t – then negative! If you don’t do it, then your inaction will have negative effects, so the argumentation of many environmentalists and politicians. The logical reaction was to call for bans and regulations. The positive benefit perspective was completely pushed into the background. The approach must be the other way round: What direct or indirect benefits can I derive from changing the energy system? What are the benefits for me personally, for my company, for society and for the environment? The positive benefits of the energy transition, combined with the mechanisms of a benefit-oriented market economy, must form the argumentation framework of the energy transition.
Chapter 8 – Hydrogen
Hydrogen seems to be the key element of the energy transition. Hydrogen is used instead of oil and gas, solves the CO2 problem and can also continue to use significant parts of the current infrastructure, so the idea goes. Of course, only green hydrogen will be produced from renewable energies and if we don’t have enough sun and wind locally, we will import the hydrogen from sun-rich countries. But it’s not that simple. The conversion to a hydrogen economy – and the idea is decades old – not only requires huge amounts of electricity and significant technical developments. The enormous amounts of renewable electricity cannot be generated in Germany or Europe. Should we deprive developing countries of the precious resource of water just to convert it into exportable hydrogen? For the future hydrogen economy, entirely new international energy partnerships are needed.
Chapter 9 – Objectives and characteristics of the new energy world
The existing target triangle of security of supply, economic efficiency and environmental compatibility is not sufficient to define the new energy world. It must be expanded to include the dimensions of efficiency and transparency. The diverse features of the new energy world, such as decentralisation, value and ownership of energy, distributed and intelligent systems, hydrogen and energy storage, map onto a new energy objective map. The five dimensions of availability, economy, efficiency, sustainability and transparency form the new energy objective space. Interaction in networks and working with distributed systems is diametrically different from previous energy structures. Special attention will be paid to the question of who is ultimately responsible for the availability of energy. In the new energy world, we will distinguish between individual responsibility and system responsibility.
Chapter 10 – Strategies for the second half
Until now, a comprehensive and consistent picture of the new energy world has been lacking. With the goals and characteristics developed in the book, such a picture can be drawn. Does this picture fit the ideas of science and politics? An overall picture cannot be found anywhere, but at least parts of the picture are depicted and confirmed by scientific studies. In federal politics and among the political parties, no overall picture of the new energy world can be found beyond their short-term election campaign statements. The foundations of the political parties also deal with the energy world only to a limited extent. Nevertheless, recognisable approaches such as sector coupling, the heat transition or the new electricity market and hydrogen market design are analysed and compared with the description of the new energy world. The mobility transition is only partly conditioned by the energy transition and is only touched upon.
Chapter 11 – Energy transition in the economy
Have industry and business really embraced the transformation of the energy system? What do their visions of the future look like? Are they really building on renewables or is nuclear energy experiencing a renaissance? What concepts does industry have? The descriptions of E.ON, RWE, SIEMENS Energy and others seem to fit what we have found out so far about the new energy world. They seem to be on the right track. The scenarios of big industry and their activities already go further than those of politicians. The steel industry is working on the implementation of the Green Steel concept and the chemical industry on the Roadmap Chemistry 2050. Medium-sized companies are also moving in the right direction, albeit more hesitantly. And of the start-ups in Germany, a large number are dealing with topics from the new energy world.
Chapter 12 – Urban new energy world
Significant parts of the energy transition are taking place at the regional and municipal level. Sector coupling, the heat transition and neighbourhood development are challenges that must be solved by the municipalities and regional authorities. Large parts of the mobility transition also take place here. The municipal utilities have a completely new role to play, not only as moderators of regional networks, but also as local infrastructure service providers. Many municipalities are leading the way, as some examples show. New mobility concepts are emerging in the cities and new energy networks in the rural regions. At the municipal and regional level, the picture of the new energy world is already clearly visible.
Chapter 13 – Milestones towards a new energy society
The new energy world cannot be described with the criteria of the old energy world. This last chapter therefore attempts to describe the essential determinants that characterise the new energy world: the new understanding of energy and its value dimensions, the energy target system expanded to five dimensions and the characteristics of the new structures, decentralised, regenerative and intelligent. Electricity and hydrogen form the backbone of the new energy system, which will build much more on transparency and acceptance. The ways of the economy and regions are adapting and new international energy cooperation are needed. Above all, however, politics must think of the energy transition from the perspective of the goal. The goals must be developed jointly and their achievement organised in the networked structures of a new energy society.